Chapter One
The History of Infectious Diseases
4 The three vaccines commonly given to children in the 1970s and 1980s were the MMR, or Measles, Mumps and Rubella, the DTP or Diphtheria, Tetanus and Pertussis and the OPV or Oral Polio Vaccine. Here is the immunization schedule recommended by the CDC in 1983, as published on their website. http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/images/schedule1983s.jpg
5 Here is a graph showing the percentage decline in the death rate from measles in the U.K. between 1838 and 1978. Note that the vaccine was introduced in 1968, twenty years after the rate had reached near zero. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#30
Here is a graph showing the decline in the death rate per 100,000, from a high of 70 to a low of nearly zero. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#13
6 Here is a graph showing the decline in the rate of death from measles in the U.S. between 1900 and 1987. It shows a decline from a rate of over 14/100,000 to well below 1/100,000 by 1950, thirteen years before the vaccine was introduced in 1963. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#15
Special Note: The issue of polio is incredibly complex. There are three things we must consider when considering all other aspects of the discussion. The first is that polio has always been rare. The second is that diagnostic definitions have changed, making statistical comparisons tricky at best. The third is that there are many causes of polio like paralysis and polio viruses are just one of those causes. To explain all that is known about polio and paralysis and to shed light on all the confusion surrounding the “polio” epidemic and what actually happened would require a couple books. Suffice it to say here, the popular mythology is incorrect. Read on to get a primer on the polio issue.
7 Here is a chart showing the incidence of a number of infectious diseases in the U.S. between 1912 and 1970. Polio is hard to see because it is at the very bottom, at just over one case per hundred thousand people per year for most of the twentieth century. There were two notable outbreaks. One was in 1916. The other began in 1943 and peaked in 1952. Incidence declined by a third in two years. Then the vaccine was introduced in April of 1955. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#24
Here is an article in which data from national health statistics is compiled. We see a sharp increase in cases of polio beginning in 1943. The rate tripled in one year. The number of cases peaked in 1952 and by 1954 had declined by 33% before the vaccine was introduced. http://www.polioplace.org/sites/default/files/files/Polio%20Network%20News%20Vol_%207%20No_%201%20Winter%201991.pdf
8 Here is a list of polio outbreaks from the first on record, in 1881 through 1910. The list was compiled by Dr. Frederick Batten and presented as part of a larger paper on polio epidemics to the Royal Society of Medicine in 1911. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2004382/?page=23
9 Here is a study of the abrupt rise in cases of polio in Britain between 1947 and 1957. The authors repeat a number of widely held assumptions about polio that we will examine as we progress through the book. What is of note here is the timing of the abrupt rise. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3915756/
See note [7] for more information on the rise and fall of polio in the U.S.
10 You can read the symptoms of DDT poisoning here on medscape. http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/815051-overview
11 Here is a thoroughly researched article that compares the volume of DDT production to the rate of polio. It shows clear correlation between the two. http://www.westonaprice.org/health-topics/pesticides-and-polio-a-critique-of-scientific-literature/
While correlation does not always necessarily equal causation, epidemiologists have a way of determining when it does. These are known as Hill's Criteria for Causation, developed by epidemiologist Bradford Hill. You can read about them on Wikipedia here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria
Before the introduction of the vaccine all cases of acute flaccid paralysis were diagnosed as polio. We now know there are a number of causes of acute flaccid paralysis and DDT is one of them.
Here is a video compilation of DDT spraying from the period in question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2EtxYxEKww&app=desktop
Here are materials advertising DDT from the period in question, along with links to contemporary scientific publications on the dangers of DDT. http://www.whale.to/vaccine/polio_ddt_h.html
12 Here is a graph comparing scarlet fever deaths to deaths from other infectious diseases in England between 1838 and 1978. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#11
Here is a graph showing incidence of a number of diseases in Massachusetts from 1861 to 1970. You can see tuberculosis way up at the top. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#19
13 Here you can read about puerperal fever on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerperal_infections
Here you can read the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweiss who first proved that hand washing by doctors could reduce incidence of puerperal fever by near 100%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis
14
15 Britain was the first country to begin keeping comprehensive disease statistics. They began in 1838. Other countries were slow to adopt this measure. The U.S. began in 1900. Each country saw the peak and the beginning of the decline at different times, and each disease followed a slightly different course. Here is a graph of death rates from five prominent infectious diseases in England from 1838 to 1970. You can clearly see that the overall decline began in the late 1860s. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#11
16 You can read about the London Sewer System here on Wikipedia. It was the first of its kind in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_sewerage_system
17 Here is a graph of deaths from measles in Britain between 1838 and 1970. Note the almost complete disappearance of deaths before the vaccine was introduced. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#13
Here is a graph of deaths from pertussis (whooping cough) in Britain between 1838 and 1970. Note the almost complete disappearance of deaths before the vaccine was introduced. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#12
We've already shared a number of other such data in previous notes.
18 You can read about scarlet fever on Wikipedia here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarlet_fever
Note that they credit antibiotics with reducing deaths from scarlet fever. This is incorrect. As this data from Britain shows, the decline in deaths from scarlet fever occurred before antibiotics were introduced in the mid 1940s. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#10
19 You can visit the WebMD page on tuberculosis here. http://www.webmd.com/lung/understanding-tuberculosis-basics
20 Here is the CDC page on cholera. http://www.cdc.gov/cholera/index.html
21 Here is the data from the British government on the death rate from pertussis (whooping cough) between 1838 and 1978. You can see the peak in the late 1860s at over 70/100,000. By 1930 the rate had declined by over 85% and was under 10/100,000. By the time the vaccine was introduced in the 1950s the rate of deaths was near 0/100,000. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#12
Here is the data from the U.S. government on deaths from pertussis between 1900 and 1967. You can see that the rate of death had decreased almost 95% from about 17/100,000 at the end of world war one to under 1/100,000 by the time the vaccine was gaining popularity in the late 1940s. We do not know the death rate from pertussis in the U.S. in the 19th century but can guess that, like in the case of the U.K., it had already been declining significantly by 1900. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#14
22 Here is a graph of the death rate from diphtheria in the U.S. between 1900 and 1967. You can see the steady, steep curve of the decline, with a pronounced increase at the time the vaccine was introduced. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#18
In the top left corner of the graph they mention the recent introduction of the diphtheria anti toxin. This was only used briefly as it was found to be quite deadly. It cannot therefore get credit for the decline we observe in this chart.
Here is a graph of deaths from diphtheria in the English city of Leicester between 1838 and 1910. We can see a huge spike in deaths just after the introduction of the anti toxin. While not all localities experienced such a dramatic increase in deaths, this example does illustrate why the anti toxin was abandoned. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#16
23 Here is the abstract from the “Illinois Medical Journal” from August, 1960. It is the abstract summary of a panel discussion among five doctors intimately familiar with the polio issue and the vaccination campaign. Note the mention of redefining polio to make it seem that it disappeared, and the mention of the fact that even after these redefinitions cases of paralysis were increasing, especially among the fully vaccinated. This makes it appear that cases of polio declined when in fact, we don't have clear data on what really happened. http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/19612702427.html;jsessionid=59B872167BC7C86E742A10BD6F986805;jsessionid=803DD9B6F17C0F26A1E53DA5D77F45F2;jsessionid=61F55EEC510027580AA25EF121AE7B7F;jsessionid=E5941E5256635BE7F0B35AFA4FD77329
See note [7] link #2 and look again at the falling then rising cases of paralytic polio following the beginning of vaccination in 1955. Consider this information in light of the redefinitions mentioned in the panel discussion.
24 Here is the CDC information page on Tetanus. Scroll about half way down the page to the "Secular Trends in the United States" to read about the history of tetanus and to see how credit is being given to the vaccine for a trend that was already well underway, if not nearly complete, before it was introduced. http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/tetanus.html
25 British government statistics on tetanus.
26 The WHO states that "With a case fatality rate of only 1/10 000 cases, mumps is generally a mild self-limiting disease.” They also state a pre vaccination rate of 100-1,000 cases per 100,000 population per year, with most cases in those under 2 years old being asymptomatic and most serious complications being in adults who have not had the disease as a child. You can read more about it in their publication here, beginning on page 3 of this pdf on the website of the WHO. http://www.who.int/wer/2007/wer8207.pdf
Here is the WebMD page on rubella. They state that “Rubella is generally mild in children and more severe but not life-threatening in adults.” http://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/rubella
The main concern with rubella is that women in their first trimester may come down with the illness and pass it to their child which can lead to birth defects. This appears to be uncommon and may indeed be related more to co factors than to rubella itself. As discussed in the book, “From Immunity to Community,” the germ theory of disease is at best partial. When most people with a germ do not have the disease we cannot say the pathogen causes the disease. It may at best play a role. For example, the big rubella outbreak that led to a rash of birth defects in the U.S. in 1964-65, and the development of the vaccine in 1967 coincided with the period of thalidomide poisoning as well as the growing presence of many other toxic chemicals in our lives. How much of those birth defects was due to the virus and how much was due to the chemicals is difficult to determine but the question must be considered in any honest evaluation of the issue. If the presence of the virus alone is not sufficient to cause the condition, we must evaluate the rest of the relevant circumstances.
To determine the value of the rubella vaccine we must compare the cases of traditional fetal rubella it causes, differentiated from other co factors, with the vaccine version of the disease that every vaccinated person gets. Here is a comprehensive literature review that failed to find a decrease in cases of rubella as a result of the mmr vaccine. The other findings in the study are also noteworthy. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22336803
27 Here is the Wikipedia page for penicillin, the first widely used antibiotic. It was discovered in 1928 and first used to treat infections in 1942. It was a couple years before it was widely produced for public consumption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin
5 Here is a graph showing the percentage decline in the death rate from measles in the U.K. between 1838 and 1978. Note that the vaccine was introduced in 1968, twenty years after the rate had reached near zero. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#30
Here is a graph showing the decline in the death rate per 100,000, from a high of 70 to a low of nearly zero. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#13
6 Here is a graph showing the decline in the rate of death from measles in the U.S. between 1900 and 1987. It shows a decline from a rate of over 14/100,000 to well below 1/100,000 by 1950, thirteen years before the vaccine was introduced in 1963. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#15
Special Note: The issue of polio is incredibly complex. There are three things we must consider when considering all other aspects of the discussion. The first is that polio has always been rare. The second is that diagnostic definitions have changed, making statistical comparisons tricky at best. The third is that there are many causes of polio like paralysis and polio viruses are just one of those causes. To explain all that is known about polio and paralysis and to shed light on all the confusion surrounding the “polio” epidemic and what actually happened would require a couple books. Suffice it to say here, the popular mythology is incorrect. Read on to get a primer on the polio issue.
7 Here is a chart showing the incidence of a number of infectious diseases in the U.S. between 1912 and 1970. Polio is hard to see because it is at the very bottom, at just over one case per hundred thousand people per year for most of the twentieth century. There were two notable outbreaks. One was in 1916. The other began in 1943 and peaked in 1952. Incidence declined by a third in two years. Then the vaccine was introduced in April of 1955. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#24
Here is an article in which data from national health statistics is compiled. We see a sharp increase in cases of polio beginning in 1943. The rate tripled in one year. The number of cases peaked in 1952 and by 1954 had declined by 33% before the vaccine was introduced. http://www.polioplace.org/sites/default/files/files/Polio%20Network%20News%20Vol_%207%20No_%201%20Winter%201991.pdf
8 Here is a list of polio outbreaks from the first on record, in 1881 through 1910. The list was compiled by Dr. Frederick Batten and presented as part of a larger paper on polio epidemics to the Royal Society of Medicine in 1911. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2004382/?page=23
9 Here is a study of the abrupt rise in cases of polio in Britain between 1947 and 1957. The authors repeat a number of widely held assumptions about polio that we will examine as we progress through the book. What is of note here is the timing of the abrupt rise. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3915756/
See note [7] for more information on the rise and fall of polio in the U.S.
10 You can read the symptoms of DDT poisoning here on medscape. http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/815051-overview
11 Here is a thoroughly researched article that compares the volume of DDT production to the rate of polio. It shows clear correlation between the two. http://www.westonaprice.org/health-topics/pesticides-and-polio-a-critique-of-scientific-literature/
While correlation does not always necessarily equal causation, epidemiologists have a way of determining when it does. These are known as Hill's Criteria for Causation, developed by epidemiologist Bradford Hill. You can read about them on Wikipedia here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria
Before the introduction of the vaccine all cases of acute flaccid paralysis were diagnosed as polio. We now know there are a number of causes of acute flaccid paralysis and DDT is one of them.
Here is a video compilation of DDT spraying from the period in question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2EtxYxEKww&app=desktop
Here are materials advertising DDT from the period in question, along with links to contemporary scientific publications on the dangers of DDT. http://www.whale.to/vaccine/polio_ddt_h.html
12 Here is a graph comparing scarlet fever deaths to deaths from other infectious diseases in England between 1838 and 1978. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#11
Here is a graph showing incidence of a number of diseases in Massachusetts from 1861 to 1970. You can see tuberculosis way up at the top. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#19
13 Here you can read about puerperal fever on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerperal_infections
Here you can read the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweiss who first proved that hand washing by doctors could reduce incidence of puerperal fever by near 100%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis
14
15 Britain was the first country to begin keeping comprehensive disease statistics. They began in 1838. Other countries were slow to adopt this measure. The U.S. began in 1900. Each country saw the peak and the beginning of the decline at different times, and each disease followed a slightly different course. Here is a graph of death rates from five prominent infectious diseases in England from 1838 to 1970. You can clearly see that the overall decline began in the late 1860s. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#11
16 You can read about the London Sewer System here on Wikipedia. It was the first of its kind in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_sewerage_system
17 Here is a graph of deaths from measles in Britain between 1838 and 1970. Note the almost complete disappearance of deaths before the vaccine was introduced. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#13
Here is a graph of deaths from pertussis (whooping cough) in Britain between 1838 and 1970. Note the almost complete disappearance of deaths before the vaccine was introduced. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#12
We've already shared a number of other such data in previous notes.
18 You can read about scarlet fever on Wikipedia here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarlet_fever
Note that they credit antibiotics with reducing deaths from scarlet fever. This is incorrect. As this data from Britain shows, the decline in deaths from scarlet fever occurred before antibiotics were introduced in the mid 1940s. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#10
19 You can visit the WebMD page on tuberculosis here. http://www.webmd.com/lung/understanding-tuberculosis-basics
20 Here is the CDC page on cholera. http://www.cdc.gov/cholera/index.html
21 Here is the data from the British government on the death rate from pertussis (whooping cough) between 1838 and 1978. You can see the peak in the late 1860s at over 70/100,000. By 1930 the rate had declined by over 85% and was under 10/100,000. By the time the vaccine was introduced in the 1950s the rate of deaths was near 0/100,000. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#12
Here is the data from the U.S. government on deaths from pertussis between 1900 and 1967. You can see that the rate of death had decreased almost 95% from about 17/100,000 at the end of world war one to under 1/100,000 by the time the vaccine was gaining popularity in the late 1940s. We do not know the death rate from pertussis in the U.S. in the 19th century but can guess that, like in the case of the U.K., it had already been declining significantly by 1900. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#14
22 Here is a graph of the death rate from diphtheria in the U.S. between 1900 and 1967. You can see the steady, steep curve of the decline, with a pronounced increase at the time the vaccine was introduced. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#18
In the top left corner of the graph they mention the recent introduction of the diphtheria anti toxin. This was only used briefly as it was found to be quite deadly. It cannot therefore get credit for the decline we observe in this chart.
Here is a graph of deaths from diphtheria in the English city of Leicester between 1838 and 1910. We can see a huge spike in deaths just after the introduction of the anti toxin. While not all localities experienced such a dramatic increase in deaths, this example does illustrate why the anti toxin was abandoned. http://www.dissolvingillusions.com/graphs/#16
23 Here is the abstract from the “Illinois Medical Journal” from August, 1960. It is the abstract summary of a panel discussion among five doctors intimately familiar with the polio issue and the vaccination campaign. Note the mention of redefining polio to make it seem that it disappeared, and the mention of the fact that even after these redefinitions cases of paralysis were increasing, especially among the fully vaccinated. This makes it appear that cases of polio declined when in fact, we don't have clear data on what really happened. http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/19612702427.html;jsessionid=59B872167BC7C86E742A10BD6F986805;jsessionid=803DD9B6F17C0F26A1E53DA5D77F45F2;jsessionid=61F55EEC510027580AA25EF121AE7B7F;jsessionid=E5941E5256635BE7F0B35AFA4FD77329
See note [7] link #2 and look again at the falling then rising cases of paralytic polio following the beginning of vaccination in 1955. Consider this information in light of the redefinitions mentioned in the panel discussion.
24 Here is the CDC information page on Tetanus. Scroll about half way down the page to the "Secular Trends in the United States" to read about the history of tetanus and to see how credit is being given to the vaccine for a trend that was already well underway, if not nearly complete, before it was introduced. http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/tetanus.html
25 British government statistics on tetanus.
26 The WHO states that "With a case fatality rate of only 1/10 000 cases, mumps is generally a mild self-limiting disease.” They also state a pre vaccination rate of 100-1,000 cases per 100,000 population per year, with most cases in those under 2 years old being asymptomatic and most serious complications being in adults who have not had the disease as a child. You can read more about it in their publication here, beginning on page 3 of this pdf on the website of the WHO. http://www.who.int/wer/2007/wer8207.pdf
Here is the WebMD page on rubella. They state that “Rubella is generally mild in children and more severe but not life-threatening in adults.” http://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/rubella
The main concern with rubella is that women in their first trimester may come down with the illness and pass it to their child which can lead to birth defects. This appears to be uncommon and may indeed be related more to co factors than to rubella itself. As discussed in the book, “From Immunity to Community,” the germ theory of disease is at best partial. When most people with a germ do not have the disease we cannot say the pathogen causes the disease. It may at best play a role. For example, the big rubella outbreak that led to a rash of birth defects in the U.S. in 1964-65, and the development of the vaccine in 1967 coincided with the period of thalidomide poisoning as well as the growing presence of many other toxic chemicals in our lives. How much of those birth defects was due to the virus and how much was due to the chemicals is difficult to determine but the question must be considered in any honest evaluation of the issue. If the presence of the virus alone is not sufficient to cause the condition, we must evaluate the rest of the relevant circumstances.
To determine the value of the rubella vaccine we must compare the cases of traditional fetal rubella it causes, differentiated from other co factors, with the vaccine version of the disease that every vaccinated person gets. Here is a comprehensive literature review that failed to find a decrease in cases of rubella as a result of the mmr vaccine. The other findings in the study are also noteworthy. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22336803
27 Here is the Wikipedia page for penicillin, the first widely used antibiotic. It was discovered in 1928 and first used to treat infections in 1942. It was a couple years before it was widely produced for public consumption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin